Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, April 22th

Thursday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following mixed economic data and early stock selling. The Dow is currently down 131 points while the Nasdaq has lost 19 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 (1.54%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

4/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.54%

131

Dow

34,005

19

NASDAQ

13,930

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Negative

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

This morning’s first piece of economic data was last week’s unemployment figures that showed 547,000 new claims for benefits were filed. That fell short of the 600,000 that was expected and was down from the previous week’s revised 586,000 initial filings. It also was the lowest number since the pandemic started. Declining claims is a sign that the employment sector strengthened during the week, making the data bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, this is only a weekly update that has lost some of its influence it had during the height of the pandemic, minimizing the negative impact on this morning’s rates.

Medium

Positive

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

March's Existing Homes Sales was the second report of the day, coming at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors announced a 3.7% decline in resales of existing homes. Analysts were expecting to see a smaller decline in sales, meaning the housing sector was a bit softer than thought last month. Accordingly, we can label this release favorable for mortgage rates.

Low

Negative

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

Also posted late this morning was Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March. They revealed a 1.3% increase that greatly exceeded forecasts of 0.6%. In other words, the indicators are pointing towards stronger than expected economic activity over the next several months. Since bonds and mortgage rates tend to thrive in weaker economic conditions, we should consider this report bed news.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

Tomorrow has a single release to close out this week’s calendar. March's New Home Sales numbers will be posted at 10:00 AM ET, giving us another measure of housing sector strength. This Commerce Department report tracks a much smaller portion of all home sales than today’s report did, so it is considered to be of low importance to the markets. Market participants are forecasting a large increase in sales of newly constructed homes. Favorable news would be a decline, but unless there is a significant variance from forecasts, the data will likely have little influence on rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Mainlands Real Estate, Inc

9185 US Highway 19 N
Pinellas Park, FL 33782-5406
Realtor MLSEqual Housing Opportunity
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